HulettNews

Several foundational issues are key to conducting successful quantitative cost risk, schedule risk, and integrated cost-schedule risk analyses. This post includes best practices for addressing the specific challenges that risk analysts face

The post discusses the impact of supportive corporate culture, scheduling and cost estimating best practices, and ways to gather unbiased data on the risks that an analysis should include.

Read more: https://www.long-intl.com/blog/project-risk-analysis/

Much of today’s industrial business involves creating and executing projects that result in satisfying the needs of an organization or its customers. These may be small, large or mega-projects. A common feature of undertaking a project when approaching the Funding Investment Decision is to commit to managing the risks in its planning and execution.

Evidence indicates that the most important decisions are made long before a project is selected. The project is formed by the sum of many decisions. Managing project risk starts early in its life cycle, at the conceptual strategy stage when various alternatives are being considered. Important decisions are made based on the risks associated with each alternative. An integrated approach to managing project risk begins at the outset.

Our experience includes examining project risks across their life cycles. The most effective organizations implement a comprehensive approach at an early stage of their development. We work with executive teams to develop analytical risk models that describe the issues in terms they can use. Risk issues further isolate the key milestones to alternatives under consideration that may experience the influence of risks unique to that version of the project. We then work with our customer to identify and quantify the risks that lead to consequences for the project alternative’s schedule and cost.

Examining different alternatives by focusing on the risks inherent in their strategy can focus the decision on a major determinator for the final project decisions, strategy, and design.

Getting the strategic decisions right involving risk as an important discriminator will lead to better outcomes for organizations and their customers.

David has three co-authored presentations accepted for presentation at the AACE International conference to be held in San Antonio in late June.

1) With Keith Hornbacher, "Using Risk Analysis Techniques to Inform Management Making Upstream Strategic Decisions"

2) With James Arrow, "Principles for Quantitative Risk Management (QRM)"

3) With Waylon Whitehead, "The Development of Corrected and Summarized Schedules to Support Monte Carlo Simulation"

Join the AACE Australian Section (AACE-AU) for our next Webinar on the 21st October 2021 at 12pm (AEDT) 9am (AWST). To book, visit https://lnkd.in/gb53yssB - This free webinar is open to all.

David Hulett is presenting a webinar on Wednesday 22 September on the AACE International Recommended Practice, 57R-09 “Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis using Risk Drivers and Monte Carlo Simulation of a CPM Model,” which he revised in 2019. The free webinar is open to all, whether AACE members or not. Here is a link to the registration site: https://web.aacei.org/conferences-events/webinars/rp-spotlight-webinarhttps://web.aacei.org/conferences-events/webinars/rp-spotlight-webinar

David Hulett and Keith Hornbacher are presenting “Using Risk Analysis Techniques to Inform Management Making Upstream Strategic Decisions” at the Project Controls Expoto be held September 14 – 16, 2021. Their presentation is on September 16 in the Master Class track of this virtual conference.

Hulett & Hornbacher to deliver cutting-edge presentation on how risk analysis can help management make better strategic decisions. The use of tools in the risk analyst’s Monte Carlo simulation toolbox can bring the risk implications of alternative plans to bear on managements’ strategy decision making long before a project is scoped out, scheduled and budgeted. Probabilistic branching and conditional branching examples are shown highlighting the project risk consequences of alternative approaches to management’s decisions. These techniques can give management a logical and transparent way to address risk of their decisions.

To learn about this virtual conference with many interesting speakers please log onto: "https://projectcontrolexpo.com/virtual/".

David Hulett and Sam Steiman have just published their article “Identifying the most probable Cost-Schedule Values from a Joint Confidence Level (JCL) Risk Analysis” in the July/August 2020 edition of the peer-reviewed Cost Engineering Journal of the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE) International.

In June 2019 David Hulett performed a schedule risk analysis for Pfizer Corporation in Rocky Mount, North Carolina on the renewal of one of the largest sterile injectable production facilities in the world.

In July 2019 David Hulett traveled to Jubail, Saudi Arabia in July to conduct a schedule risk analysis for Saudi Aramco on the Berri Oil and Gas Field offshore drilling / production island construction project. The contractor, China Harbour Engineering, provided the schedule and the risk were captured with interviews with China Harbour and Saudi Aramco.

In August 2019 David Hulett was in Washington DC for the Phase II integrated cost-schedule risk analysis of the Cannon House Office Building Renewal Project, for the Architect of the Capitol. This is the third time we have participated in this 10-year multi-phase project. We teamed with McDonough Bolyard Peck.

Later in 2019 Keith Hornbacher, Senior Associate and Kristin Hauser, Associate conducted an integrated cost and schedule risk analysis for NAVFAC, the US Naval Facilities Engineering Command on a project involving construction on the Marine Corps Air Station Yuma.

Later in 2019 and continuing in 2020 David Hulett has been involved in cost and schedule risk analysis of a claim made on a large LNG project. He is being assisted by Waylon Whitehead, Senior Associate with many years of risk analysis on LNG projects. They are doing this project as a Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis Partner of Long International.

In 2020 Keith Hornbacher, Senior Associate and Kristin Hauser, Associate finished an integrated cost and schedule risk analysis for INEOS, an oil company in Denmark on an offshore North Sea project. It was made more difficult by the corona virus pandemic that kept Keith and Kristin in their home office communicating over Skype.

David Hulett to conduct a webinar featuring his Project Schedule Risk Analysis Maturity Model presentation to the Project Management College of Scheduling on June 10, 2020. Contact the sponsors at https://pmcos.org.

David Hulett and Michael Trumper of Intaver Institute (makers of Risky Project risk simulation software) gave a presentation titled “Conditional Branching Models how Project Managers Typically React to Schedule Overruns” to the 2020 AACE International conference. This virtual presentation was given Friday July 3 am U. S. Eastern time.

The presentation highlights the conditional branching capability of Risky Project software to allow the simulation to implement different logic based on the occurrence of a schedule event in every iteration. The conditional branching method allows the conscious decision to incorporate changes in the plan based on schedule risk results. It differs from probabilistic branching where an alternative path is selected at random.

The Link to the Risky Project Software: http://intaver.com/products/riskyproject-professional/.

Hulett’s article on Journey Map to a More Mature Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA) Process, has been published by AACE International in the Cost Engineering Journal for March/April 2019

David Hulett is scheduled to give two presentations at the 2019 AACE International Conference and Expo in New Orleans June 16 – 19, 2019. They are:

• Cost and Schedule Risks Interact in Megaprojects, joint presentation with Waylon Whitehead
• Identifying the Most Probable Cost – Schedule Values from a Joint Confidence Level (JCL) Risk Analysis, joint presentation with Sam Steiman

Hope to see you there..

Dr. Hulett gave a joint paper entitled “Integrated Cost/Schedule Risk Analysis Using Monte Carlo Simulation of a CPM Model” with Mike Nosbisch at the Construction CPM Conference in San Diego on January 22, 2019 and again at the Western Council of Construction Consumers Summit in Los Angeles on January 30, 2019.

Hulett & Associates and Safran Software are pleased to announce the formation of their collaborative partnership aimed at delivering the very latest in cost and schedule risk management skills and supporting software. This combination of deep experience and the very latest software captures and delivers current Best Practices and Techniques to risk mediation and control for any complex project. As a direct result of this collaboration a new self-assessment tool is also announced that allows organization to assess the maturity of its own risk culture. Based on the experience of David Hulett and his associates, this maturity index can then be used to improve the use of risk analytics in planning and delivering major projects and to increase the investment in the organization’s risk culture and process. The benefits of such a change can easily be understood by corporate stakeholders. To use this tool please visit link, or to see the background to this maturity index please download the White Paper written by David here.

Hulett & Associates, LLC is based in Los Angeles and is managed by Dr. David Hulett. David enjoys an international reputation as having authored two well-received books that on schedule risk and integrated cost-schedule risk analysis. He has written Standards and Recommended Practices published by The Project Management Institute (PMI) and the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering International (AACE International). His clients include government agencies and companies in oil and gas, aerospace and defense, construction, pharmaceutical plant construction and transportation. His practice is in North and South America, Europe, and Asia. He has contributed new analytical developments to some of the well-recognized modern Monte Carlo simulation tools including Safran Risk.

Safran Software Solutions has been publishing project controls software applications for over twenty years. Many of the world’s most complex and asset intensive projects rely on software from Safran to plan and deliver to budget and to schedule. Based in Norway, Safran operates globally through local offices and partners, and with a particular focus on risk management Safran is a world leader in this space.

Richard Wood, CEO of Safran: "A collaboration between David Hulett and Safran is a perfect combination – two of the world’s leaders in the setting and delivery of Risk practices to all asset intensive industrial sectors."

David Hulett: "I feel this to be a long overdue collaboration and a formidable team, ready to leverage all our join experience in the service of our global customers."

Saybrook Associates and Hulett & Associates are pleased to announce the formation of their collaborative partnership in their practice of RISK IDENTIFICATION, ASSESSMENT, and MITIGATION.

This combination of skills and strengths, along with the cooperative deployment of Best Practices and Techniques, provides our clients with the highest possible level of capability in identifying and managing or mitigating threats to their Investments and expected Successful Outcomes in their Program/Project Initiatives.

Hulett & Associates, LLC is based in Los Angeles and is managed by Dr. David Hulett. David enjoys an international reputation as having authored several books that are considered as ‘The Bibles’ and written Standards and Recommended Practices that have been both embraced and encouraged by The Project Management Institute (PMI) and the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering International (AACE International). David is most predominately noted as a practitioner and leader in the field of Risk Assessment, Management, and Mitigation. His clients include government agencies and companies in oil and gas, aerospace and defense, construction, pharmaceutical development and plant construction and transportation. His practice is in North and South America, Europe, and Asia. He has contributed new analytical developments to some modern Monte Carlo simulation tools.

Saybrook Associates Inc. is a Program/Project Management and Project Controls consulting practice based in the New Haven, CT region with offices across the USA, and provides its capabilities internationally. By deployment of Best Practices and Methodologies it enables Projects to achieve successful outcomes. Saybrook’s ‘Full Project Phases/Life Cycle Focus’ involvement in control and management of Projects and Project processes has given them the capability to not only Identify and Assess Risks – but to also employ Qualitative processes that are ‘Risk preventive’ and enable and effect Quantitative processes that optimize the time and cost investments with which to mitigate assessed risks.

Hulett and Saybrook - we feel to be a ‘perfect pairing’, a formidable team, and eager to help! Please contact or visit either of our organizations or websites to discuss our capabilities and learn how we might be deployed in your behalf.