Project Schedule Risk Summary
by
Hulett & Associates, LLC
Project Management Consultants
Projects overrun their scheduled completion dates all too often.
Critical path method (CPM) schedules, sophisticated as they are, form just the starting point for schedule management. A quantified assessment of schedule risk offers an opportunity to increase the accuracy of the schedule and estimate the likelihood of meeting the schedule.
The project may need a time contingency just to have a fair chance of success.
At the beginning of each project, many project completion dates are possible. Because each activity's duration is influenced by factors that are either out of the project manager's control or are influenced by the current plan, the project may overrun.
Project managers need to know where the risk is in their project.
A risk analysis can show which activities are most likely to cause the project to overrun. In the chart below, the critical path is only 25% likely to delay the project, and a project manager should pay attention to activities F, G and H.
Projects may not go as expected. A component may fail a key test.
If this happens, new activities will be required and the project may be delayed. In some cases, the best we can do is to estimate the likelihood of failing the test and use probabilistic branching.
Some favorite schedule risk software includes:
- RISK for Project Professional from Palisade Corporation, also an add-in to Project.
- Primavera Risk Analysis (PRA, formerly Pertmaster) from Oracle Primavera reads MS Project and Primavera files and performs simulations.
- Open Plan from Deltek has simulation capability included.
For more information:
David T. Hulett, Ph.D.
e-mail: info@projectrisk.com
URL: www.projectrisk.com
Phone: (310) 476-7699
Cell: (310) 283-3527
FAX: (310) 472-8846
12233 Shetland Lane, Los Angeles, CA 90049
